Nearly half of people who’ve dealt with extreme weather express concern about having to move: CBS News poll

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Dealing with extreme weather is raising concerns for some Americans who feel they may be forced to eventually move out of the area where they live because of it. Fifty-three percent of Americans report having experienced what they consider extreme weather in recent years, and nearly half of them are at least somewhat concerned that they may need to move from the area they live in now because of it.

And a big majority of those who have experienced extreme weather themselves see climate change as a major factor contributing to their concern and feel climate change needs to be addressed right away. CONTINUED

Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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Why 2024 could be the most boring presidential primary season ever

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For people who write about electoral, or “horse race,” politics, few things are more enjoyable than an exciting presidential primary season. Sometimes, both Democrats and Republicans cooperate by holding gripping fights for the party nods (see 2008). Sometimes, however, voters in both parties quickly coalesce around front-runners (see 2000).

A look at the current dynamics in both parties suggests 2024 could be one of the most, if not the most, boring primary cycles in the last 50 years. Nothing is set in stone. Things can change when you least expect it, but it’s tough not to acknowledge the current facts. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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NBC News poll: Nearly 70% of GOP voters stand behind Trump amid indictment, investigations

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A whopping two-thirds of Republican primary voters say they stand behind former President Donald Trump and dismiss concerns about his electability, despite his recent criminal arrest and the other legal investigations into his past conduct, a new national NBC News poll finds. That — along with his double-digit lead over his nearest potential GOP rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — makes Trump the clear frontrunner in the early race for the Republican presidential nomination.

The Republican Party’s continued enthusiasm for Trump stands in contrast to an anxious nation’s displeasure with how the 2024 race is shaping up. Substantial majorities of all Americans don’t want Trump or President Joe Biden to run for president in 2024, setting up a potentially divisive and uninspiring general-election rematch between the two men, with Biden expected to launch his re-election bid in the coming days. CONTINUED

Mark Murray, NBC News

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Pew’s methods report and the polling dot-com bubble

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This week, Pew Research Center released an analysis of national pollsters and the methods they have used since 2000. I knew this project was in progress because I had confirmed their information for PRRI in my former role as director of research, and I am very happy to see these results released.

There’s nothing surprising here to those of us in the field; I knew from working on poll aggregation that poll proliferation and the proliferation of dubious methods was a huge problem. The great thing the Pew report does is put it all into stark relief with one key chart. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, Herding Cats & Polls

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Attitudes toward climate change continue to be divisive

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A majority of the public report personal impacts from extreme weather in the last five years, and most think climate change was the reason. Half of adults have become more concerned about climate change in the last year. In discussing climate change, many adults learn or teach new information, though fewer report changing opinions.

Seventy-one percent of the public believes climate change is happening, 12% believe climate change is not happening, and 16% are not sure, numbers that have not changed much in the last seven years of AP-NORC polling. Democrats are more likely to believe climate change is happening (91%) compared to independents (62%) and Republicans (52%).

Of those who believe climate change is happening, 63% think it is the result of human activity. Just 7% believe it is caused by natural changes in the environment, while 30% say believe it is caused by both equally. Democrats are more likely to believe climate change stems from human activity (78%) compared to independents (52%) and Republicans (38%). CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Climate change needs to be addressed…and soon, most Americans say

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A majority of Americans — two-thirds — feel people need to address climate in the coming years, including more than half who think action is necessary right now. Most feel their generation bears some responsibility for making sacrifices and taking care of the environment for future generations.

Majorities across gender, racial and age groups all see a need for climate change to be addressed now or in the next few years, with more urgency among younger Americans. People who want climate change to be addressed right now are especially likely to feel some responsibility for the next generation. CONTINUED

Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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