CBS News poll: As Biden announces campaign, do Americans feel things at home are under control?

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For years now, Americans have said things in the country aren’t going well. And there’s still a large majority describing things in the country as “out of control” — that hasn’t abated in recent months. It’s not an easy environment for any president launching a reelection bid. So, we asked people why they felt that way — and whether it’s directly connected to President Joe Biden or not.

They said there are bigger factors: like the economy (financial insecurity can certainly make people feel less in control) and the general state of U.S. politics, and even U.S. culture and values. Those views cut across party lines. CONTINUED

CBS News

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Most Republicans would vote for Trump even if he’s convicted of a crime, poll finds

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As President Biden launches his reelection campaign, a rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump looks increasingly likely. This comes as a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll out Tuesday that finds two-thirds of Republicans would still vote for Trump even if he is found guilty of a crime. …

Overall, 64% of respondents do not want Trump to be president again. And that grows to 70% if he’s convicted of a crime. That so many rank-and-file Republicans would stick with Trump, seemingly no matter what, shows the real stronghold he has on the GOP base — and why he’s considered the front-runner to win the Republican nomination again. CONTINUED

Domenico Montanaro, NPR News

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Where Biden’s poll numbers stand as he announces 2024 run

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Four in 10 Americans approve of how President Joe Biden is running the country, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll conducted in the days before he announced his campaign for reelection. Meanwhile, a majority of Republicans currently say they would vote for Donald Trump, even if he is convicted of a crime, but the former president has found little support beyond his base. …

Public approval of Biden’s job as president has languished in the 30s and the 40s for much of his time in the Oval Office, despite the nation’s improved economy and the COVID pandemic entering a new phase under his administration. Shortly before Trump announced his own reelection campaign in 2019, 42 percent of Americans approved of how he was doing his job. CONTINUED

Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour

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Is Biden’s Approval Rating Too Weak for Him to Win?

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Key Points
• Presidential approval is typically a good predictor of the share of the vote an incumbent president will receive.
• Recent presidents often ran a little ahead of their approval as opposed to a little behind, although the sample size is very small.
• Assuming President Biden’s approval, which is mired in the low-to-mid 40s, does not spike to 50% or better before Election Day, he is likely going to have to perform well with those who only “somewhat” disapprove of his job performance. Democrats held their own with these voters in 2022. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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Supreme Court’s move on abortion pill in line with majority of Americans

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Roughly two-thirds of Americans, including a majority of Republicans, oppose laws that ban access to medication abortion, in line with the Supreme Court’s move on Friday to maintain the status quo on the drug mifepristone for now. That’s according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, which was conducted while the high court considered whether it would permit restrictions that would have dramatically diminished the availability of the drug.

Across virtually all demographic groups, people do not support laws that prohibit access to such prescription medications. Even white evangelical Christians, who historically are more likely to support abortion restrictions, were split in this latest poll over whether or not medication abortion should be banned. …

The percentage of Americans with significant confidence in the Supreme Court justices has dropped a remarkable 23 points over the last four years, this poll also found. CONTINUED

Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour

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Share of Republicans identifying as Trump supporters ticks up after indictment, poll finds

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The latest national NBC News poll not only shows former President Donald Trump leading the early 2024 Republican race for president, and having nearly 70% of GOP primary voters standing behind him after his recent arrest and arraignment.

It also finds the share of Republican respondents who identify more as Trump supporters than party supporters increasing since his indictment. CONTINUED

Mark Murray & Alexandra Marquez, NBC News

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