How the Other Half Votes: Manchin and Tester’s Challenge

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Key Points
• Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Jon Tester (D-MT) are outliers in Congress — no other Senate or House member holds a state/district that is more hostile to his or her party at the presidential level than this pair.
• Montana and especially West Virginia are deeply Republican at the presidential level, and while Manchin and Tester have clearly run way ahead of Democratic presidential performance in recent years, changes at the presidential level are reflected in their own coalitions. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Montana top half counties

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Nearly a Year After Roe’s Demise, Americans’ Views of Abortion Access Increasingly Vary by Where They Live

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Nearly a year after the U.S. Supreme Court’s landmark Dobbs ruling overturned the Roe v. Wade decision that had guaranteed a national right to abortion, overall public support for legal abortion remains largely unchanged.

However, a growing share of Americans living in states where abortion is prohibited say abortions are hard to obtain in their local area. And the share of people in these states who say access to abortion should be easier has increased since August 2019.

Today, a 54% majority of Americans nationwide say it would be very easy or somewhat easy to get an abortion in the area where they live, down from 65% in 2019. CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

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‘A country on fire’: New poll finds America polarized over culture, race and ‘woke’

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The country’s cultural divides and political divides have become one and the same, according to a new national NBC News poll. The poll finds stark partisan differences on major cultural issues — racism, accepting LGBTQ people, the term “woke,” and even the fundamental goals of American society.

Half of Americans — 50% — believe society should be promoting greater respect for traditional social and moral values, while 42% say society should be encouraging greater tolerance of people with different lifestyles and backgrounds. That perspective has stayed almost completely stagnant since the poll asked the same question in 2013.

Digging into those numbers reveals a deep partisan divide. CONTINUED

Bridget Bowman, NBC News

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Fox News Poll: Book banning, transgender issues seen as problematic

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As the debate over controversial issues such as book banning and transgender policies in the U.S. rages, the latest Fox News Poll asks voters how much of a problem these issues are.

When it comes to public schools, a majority views book banning as problematic with 60% saying it’s a major problem. About half rate too much focus on race (49%), parents not having enough say in what’s being taught (48%), and overly accommodating transgender policies (48%) as major problems.

On more specific transgender issues, 57% think political attacks on families with transgender children is a major problem, while 54% say the same about female transgender athletes competing in women’s sports. CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

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Fox News Poll: Across the board, voters say economy getting worse for them

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Most voters think the economy is in bad shape, a record number feel it’s getting worse for their family, and not many think the White House is helping, according to a new Fox News survey.

Economic views are negative by more than three-to-one: 21% say it is in excellent/good shape, while 78% rate it as only fair/poor. That’s worse than the 33-66% rating at the end of Trump’s term (Dec. 2020), and it’s much worse when compared to pre-pandemic views. At that time, 55% rated the economy positively, with a record 20% calling conditions “excellent” (Jan. 2020). …

The president’s job approval remains below 50% on every issue surveyed. Voters give him his lowest marks on the economy (35% approve – 63% disapprove). More also disapprove than approve of Biden’s handling of guns (35-62), China (35-61), immigration (36-61), national security (45-52), and Russia/Ukraine (43-53). CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

Fox News Poll: Trump still top 2024 Republican preference, DeSantis slipping

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Former President Donald Trump maintains his advantage in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination race, as support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis falls for the second month in a row, according to a new Fox News survey. In addition, President Joe Biden bests his challengers in the survey’s first test of a Democratic nomination contest.

Biden gets the backing of 62% of Democratic primary voters, far ahead of Robert Kennedy Jr. at 19% and Marianne Williamson at 9%. His opponents are most successful in peeling away support among women and Gen Xers, keeping Biden in the mid-fifties among both groups. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

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