The Emerging Anti-MAGA Majority

In 2016, Trump shocked the world by tearing down the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Quickly, a new consensus congealed around the idea that despite having lost the national popular vote, and only barely having won the Electoral College, Trump had improved Republicans’ fortunes for the foreseeable future with his unique appeal to “uneducated” voters. …

Yet, since 2016, Republicans have lost 23 of the 27 elections in the five states everyone agrees Democratic hopes in the Electoral College and the Senate depend on. When Trump was sworn in, Republicans held four of those five states’ governorships, and six of the ten Senate seats. Moreover, Republicans defied history by losing nearly across the board in those states last year, the only time anything like that has happened to a Party running against such an unpopular president a midterm.

How could all of this happen?

As the unique voter file analysis in this post confirms, it didn’t happen because very many of those who had voted for Trump in 2016 had buyers’ remorse. (Indeed, the number of 2016 voters switching sides has been historically low, and a wash as some have moved from Clinton to Trump.) Instead, Republicans have lost because of the emerging anti-MAGA majority consisting of those who did not vote in 2016. CONTINUED

Michael Podhorzer, Weekend Reading


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Is Gen Z Coming for the GOP?

Gen Z is poised to massively expand its influence in the 2024 election. But its impact may be more complex than typically assumed.

As many as 7 million to 9 million more members of the racially and culturally diverse Gen Z could cast ballots in 2024 than did in 2020, while the number of the predominantly white Baby Boomers and older generations voting may decline by a corresponding amount, according to nonpartisan forecasts. As a result, for the first time, Gen Z and Millennials combined could account for as many votes next year as the Baby Boomers and their elders—the groups that have made up a majority of voters for decades.

That generational transition represents a clear opportunity for Democrats, who have consistently amassed solid, sometimes overwhelming, margins among both Millennials and Gen Z voters. But an analysis of previously unpublished election data from Catalist, a Democratic targeting firm, by Michael Podhorzer, the former political director for the AFL-CIO, shows that even the emergence of these new voters may not break the larger political stalemate that has partitioned the country into seemingly immovable blocks of red and blue states. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic


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Social Conservatism in U.S. Highest in About a Decade

More Americans this year (38%) say they are very conservative or conservative on social issues than said so in 2022 (33%) and 2021 (30%). At the same time, the percentage saying their social views are very liberal or liberal has dipped to 29% from 34% in each of the past two years, while the portion identifying as moderate (31%) remains near a third. …

For most of the past eight years, Americans were about as likely to say they were liberal as conservative on social issues. This year, there is a more obvious conservative advantage. The shift is mostly due to increasing social conservatism among Republicans, at a time when social issues such as transgender rights, abortion and other hot-button concerns are prominent in the national public debate. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup


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Extremism is more bipartisan than Democrats want to believe

It’s obvious to us Democrats that the GOP is the party of extremists and extremism. …

Republicans want to outlaw abortion; they’re willing to default on government debts already incurred; they believe children should be able to buy weapons of war; they reject efforts to combat the climate crisis. For heaven’s sake, the Republican Party is led by Donald Trump, an extremist if there ever was one.

Of course, we Democrats have some extremists too, but they are far fewer and far less extreme than the Republicans. It’s all readily apparent to us. But not to ordinary voters. Equal numbers see the two parties as extreme. Three pools of evidence help raise the curtain on voters’ views. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill


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Scientists’ political donations reflect polarization in academia – with implications for the public’s trust in science

Under 10% of political donations from academic scholars go to Republican causes. Douglas Rissing/iStock via Getty Images Plus
Alexander Kaurov, Harvard University

People who lean left politically reported an increase in trust in scientists during the COVID-19 pandemic, while those who lean right politically reported much lower levels of trust in scientists. This polarization around scientific issues – from COVID-19 to climate change to evolution – is at its peak since surveys started tracking this question over 50 years ago.

Surveys reveal that people with more education are more ideologically liberal. And academia has been gradually turning left over the past 40 years. Scientists – the people who produce scientific knowledge – are widely perceived to be on the opposite side of the political spectrum from those who trust science the least. This disparity poses a challenge when communicating important science to the public.

In a recent study, science historian Naomi Oreskes, environmental social scientist Viktoria Cologna, literary critic Charlie Tyson and I leveraged public data sets to explore the dynamics of scientists’ political leanings. Our analysis of individual political donations confirms that the vast majority of scientists who contribute have supported Democratic candidates. But we contend that this fact doesn’t need to short-circuit effective science communication to the public.

Digging into individuals’ political donations

In the United States, all donations to political parties and campaigns must be reported to the Federal Election Committee. That information is published by the FEC on its website, along with the donation amount and date; the donor’s name, address and occupation; and the recipient’s party affiliation. This data allowed us to examine millions of transactions made in the past 40 years.

In our study, we examined researchers in academia, specifically people with titles like “professor,” “faculty,” “scientist” and “lecturer,” as well as scientists in the energy sector. We conducted this analysis by identifying 100,000 scientists based on their self-reported occupation and cross-referencing them with the Elsevier’s Scopus database, which contains information on researchers and their scientific publications. The findings of our study indicate a gradual shift away from the Republican Party among American researchers, both in academia and the industry.

Overall support of the Republican Party, in terms of individual donations from the general public, has slid down over the past 40 years. But this trend is much steeper for scientists and academics than for the overall U.S. population. By 2022, it was hard to find an academic supporting the Republican Party financially, even at Christian colleges and universities. The trend also persists across academic disciplines.

Notably, scientists working at fossil fuel companies have also become more liberal, while their management has remained conservative, based on both groups’ political donations. We suspect this buildup of political polarization within companies may at some point intensify the public conversation about climate change.

Who shares science messages

People tend to accept and internalize information delivered by someone they consider trustworthy. Communication scholars call this the “trusted messenger” effect. Various factors like socioeconomic status, race and, increasingly, political leanings influence this perceived credibility.

Science communication gets stalled because of what appears to be a positive feedback loop: The more liberal academia gets, the fewer “trusted messengers” can communicate with the half of the U.S. that leans right. Trust in science and scientific institutions among Republicans declines and it gets reflected in their policies; academia, in response, leans even more left.

The increased clustering of scientists away from Republicans risks further damaging conservative Republicans’ trust in science. But we contend there are ways to break out of this loop.

First, academia is not a monolith. While our study may suggest that all academics are liberal, it is important to admit that the data we analyzed – political donations – is only a proxy for what people actually think. We don’t capture every scientist with this method since not everyone donates to political campaigns. In fact, most people don’t donate to any candidate at all.

According to surveys, many academics have traditionally considered themselves moderate. The question, then, is how to communicate to the public the diversity of political views in academia, given the degree of current polarization, and how to elevate these other voices.

Second, the evident left leaning of academia is not necessarily proof of a “liberal bias” that some people worry is corrupting research and impeding the pursuit of truth. Overall, higher education does appear to have a liberalizing effect on social and political views, but universities also play an important role in the formation of political identity for young conservatives.

We believe that clear data about academia’s left-leaning orientation, as well as understanding the underlying reasons for it, could help interrupt the feedback loop of declining scientific trust.

For now there’s a shortage of centrist and conservative scientists serving as trusted messengers. By engaging in public conversation, these scientists could offer visible alternatives to the anti-scientific stances of Republican elites, while at the same time showing that the scientific world is not homogeneous.The Conversation


Alexander Kaurov, Research Associate in History of Science, Harvard University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

How one DeSantis speech captured the dynamic that could decide 2024

When Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis delivered his initial speech as a declared presidential candidate in Iowa last week, his first 15 minutes succinctly previewed how Republicans might defeat President Joe Biden next year. The next 30 minutes of DeSantis’ speech then demonstrated how Biden might survive despite all the doubts about his performance and capabilities.

DeSantis spent the first part of his address in an evangelical church outside of Des Moines highlighting all the vulnerabilities on issues such as inflation and the border that have suppressed Biden’s job approval ratings since late summer 2021.

But then DeSantis spent nearly the next half hour detailing an ambitious, exhaustive and aggressively conservative agenda on social issues (such as a six-week abortion ban, and the removal of books from school classrooms and libraries). Those messages thrilled his right-leaning audience, but risk alienating many of the swing voters who have recoiled from former President Donald Trump, particularly in the suburbs of large metropolitan areas across the battleground states. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN


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