Biden’s ‘Big Build’

… Centered on a trio of bills Biden signed in his first two years, the president’s economic program has triggered what could become the most concentrated burst of public and private investment since the 1960s. …

This surge of investment could rumble through the economy for years. The reverberations could include reviving domestic manufacturing, opening new facilities in depressed communities that have suffered plant closings and disinvestment since the 1970s, and potentially increasing the nation’s productivity, a key ingredient of sustained growth. …

But the political impact of this investment for Biden and other Democrats remains much more uncertain. Polls suggest that for most Americans, the continued pain of inflation, even as it moderates, overshadows the good news of new factory openings. And analyses by Brookings Metro and other groups have found that this private investment is flowing disproportionately into places that didn’t vote for Biden in 2020 and remain highly unlikely to vote for him again in 2024. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic


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Recent Supreme Court rulings alienate the left but are hardly unpopular

After a series of key setbacks for their side on affirmative action, gay weddings and student loan debt forgiveness, Democrats are again railing against the Supreme Court. They have lumped the decisions in with perhaps the court’s most unpopular and consequential adverse ruling in recent times: the overturning of Roe v. Wade last year.

But unlike the decision that ended Americans’ right to abortion, these most recent decisions are not as obviously unpopular with the American public. And indeed, some of them could even be understood as having popular support. CONTINUED

Aaron Blake, Washington Post


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Why the US ‘does not get to assume that it lasts forever’

As the United States marks its 247th birthday Tuesday, questions about how many more the nation will celebrate in its current form have become ominously relevant.

Possibly not since the two decades before the Civil War has America faced as much pressure on its fundamental cohesion. The greatest risk probably isn’t a repeat of the outright secession that triggered the Civil War, though even that no longer seems entirely impossible in the most extreme scenarios. More plausible is the prospect that the nation will continue its drift into two irreconcilable blocs of red and blue states uneasily trying to occupy the same geographic space. …

The ideal of national unity celebrated on July Fourth has almost always been overstated: the country from its founding has been riven by sectional, racial, class and gender conflicts. Large groups of people living within our borders have always felt excluded from any proclaimed national consensus: American Indians who were brutally displaced for decades, Black people who faced generations of legal slavery and then decades of state-sponsored segregation, women denied the vote until the 20th century.

But today’s proliferating and intersecting pressures have reached a height that is forcing experts to contemplate questions few Americans have seriously considered since the Civil War era: can the United States continue to function as a single unified entity, and if so, in what form? CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN


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The GOP has a glaring Mormon problem

Republicans often find themselves on the losing end of demographic shifts as the United States grows more racially diverse, better-educated and less religious. Only one long-term trend — the rapid growth of the reliably conservative Mormon Church — has consistently provided the GOP with good news.

But that consolation might be slipping away. Mormonism is in decline, and Democrats are gaining traction with younger church members. There are no easy solutions for the church or the GOP. …

The Mormon Church has tried to solve its problems by trying to redouble its missionary efforts and reducing the length of its Sunday services from three hours to two. It also recently told members to consider each candidate’s character and positions rather than vote straight-ticket, a not-so-subtle signal that the church wants Democrats in the pews, too. CONTINUED

David Byler, Washington Post


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Americans split on recent Supreme Court decisions

In polling conducted June 30-July 1, 2023—just after the Supreme Court overturned affirmative action, struck down the Biden student loan forgiveness plan, and ruled in favor of a web designer seeking to deny services to a same-sex couple—a new ABC News/Ipsos poll finds the American public is split on the decisions. Additionally, a majority of Americans (53%) say that they think Supreme Court justices rule mainly on the basis of their partisan political views, up 10 points from January of 2022. CONTINUED

Chris Jackson & Charlie Rollason, Ipsos


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Visual misinformation is widespread on Facebook – and often undercounted by researchers

If your instincts say a lot of images on Facebook are misleading, you’re right. AP Photo/Jenny Kane
Yunkang Yang, Texas A&M University; Matthew Hindman, George Washington University, and Trevor Davis, Columbia University

How much misinformation is on Facebook? Several studies have found that the amount of misinformation on Facebook is low or that the problem has declined over time.

This previous work, though, missed most of the story.

We are a communications researcher, a media and public affairs researcher and a founder of a digital intelligence company. We conducted a study that shows that massive amounts of misinformation have been overlooked by other studies. The biggest source of misinformation on Facebook is not links to fake news sites but something more basic: images. And a large portion of posted pictures are misleading.

For instance, on the eve of the 2020 election, nearly one out of every four political image posts on Facebook contained misinformation. Widely shared falsehoods included QAnon conspiracy theories, misleading statements about the Black Lives Matter movement and unfounded claims about Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden.

Visual misinformation by the numbers

Our study is the first large-scale effort, on any social media platform, to measure the prevalence of image-based misinformation about U.S. politics. Image posts are important to study, in part because they are the most common type of post on Facebook at roughly 40% of all posts.

Previous research suggests that images may be especially potent. Adding images to news stories can shift attitudes, and posts with images are more likely to be reshared. Images have also been a longtime component of state-sponsored disinformation campaigns, like those of Russia’s Internet Research Agency.

We went big, collecting more than 13 million Facebook image posts from August through October 2020, from 25,000 pages and public groups. Audiences on Facebook are so concentrated that these pages and groups account for at least 94% of all engagement – likes, shares, reactions – for political image posts. We used facial recognition to identify public figures, and we tracked reposted images. We then classified large, random draws of images in our sample, as well as the most frequently reposted images.

Overall, our findings are grim: 23% of image posts in our data contained misinformation. Consistent with previous work, we found that misinformation was unequally distributed along partisan lines. While only 5% of left-leaning posts contained misinformation, 39% of right-leaning posts did.

The misinformation we found on Facebook was highly repetitive and often simple. While there were plenty of images doctored in a misleading way, these were outnumbered by memes with misleading text, screenshots of fake posts from other platforms, or posts that took unaltered images and misrepresented them.

For example, a picture was repeatedly posted as “proof” that now-former Fox News anchor Chris Wallace was a close associate of sexual predator Jeffrey Epstein. In reality, the gray-haired man in the image is not Epstein but actor George Clooney.

There was one piece of good news. Some previous research had found that misinformation posts generated more engagement than true posts. We did not find that. Controlling for page subscribers and group size, we found no relationship between engagement and the presence of misinformation. Misinformation didn’t guarantee virality – but it also didn’t diminish the chances that a post would go viral.

But image posts on Facebook were toxic in ways that went beyond simple misinformation. We found countless images that were abusive, misogynistic or simply racist. Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Maxine Waters, Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama were the most frequent targets of abuse. For example, one frequently reposted image labeled Kamala Harris a “‘high-end’ call girl.” In another, a photo of Michelle Obama was altered to make it appear that she had a penis.

Yawning gap in knowledge

Much more work remains to be done in understanding the role visual misinformation plays in the digital political landscape. While Facebook remains the most used social media platform, more than a billion images a day are posted on Facebook’s sister platform Instagram, and billions more on rival Snapchat. Videos posted on YouTube, or more recent arrival TikTok, may also be an important vector of political misinformation about which researchers still know too little.

Perhaps the most disturbing finding of our study, then, is that it highlights the breadth of collective ignorance about misinformation on social media. Hundreds of studies have been published on the subject, but until now researchers have not understood the biggest source of misinformation on the largest social media platform. What else are we missing?The Conversation


Yunkang Yang, Assistant Professor of Communication, Texas A&M University; Matthew Hindman, Professor of Media and Public Affairs, George Washington University, and Trevor Davis, Fellow, Tow Center for Digital Journalism, Columbia University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.