Summer heat wave sends temperatures and economic costs soaring

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It’s only mid-July, but it has already been a hot summer — and as the reports of record heatwaves and wildfires come in, the potential impacts of climate change have begun to feel very real.

For years now, experts have talked about population shifts and “climate refugees,” but if there’s a lesson from this summer’s extreme weather, it may be that no place is truly safe from major changes in the environment.

That’s the significance of the record-breaking climate news this year. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Why Biden worries about a third-party rival in 2024

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… Depending on how you average the polling, Biden is either up or down a point or two against former President Donald Trump (the most likely GOP nominee at this point). This is important because if the polls were pointing to a blowout, it would take a very popular third-party candidate to change the outcome of the general election.

Instead, all it may take to affect that outcome is for a sliver of the electorate to back a third-party candidate instead of either Biden or Trump in a hypothetical matchup.

In fact, the only election I can point to in the past 50 years in which a third-party nominee probably cost one candidate the election was 2000, when Democrat Al Gore lost Florida – and the presidential election – by 537 votes. The polls showed that more of Green Party nominee Ralph Nader’s voters would have cast ballots for Gore and not Republican George W. Bush had Nader not been an option. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Democrats and Republicans Agree Men Are in Trouble. They Disagree on What to Do About It.

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For decades, a gender gap has been slowly changing how Americans vote: Women are voting for Democrats more, and men are usually sticking with Republicans.

But lately, Republicans have been increasingly explicit about claiming the mantle of the manlier party for themselves. …

Democrats have been less eager to stake their claim on traditional ideas of either gender, but they, too, have leaned into the talk of manliness. …

For all the space this talk of “masculine virtues” has taken up in politics, though, is any of it connecting with voters? Could these ideas actually affect how people vote? Actually, yes. It turns out ideas about gender and masculinity can be reliable indicators of how people vote by party and by candidate, according to a new POLITICO Magazine/IPSOS poll conducted in early May, which surveyed 1,016 respondents, including 267 Republicans, 307 Democrats and 324 independents. CONTINUED

Katelyn Fossett, Politico Magazine

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Biden’s bad spot

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“Bidenomoics,” the Biden administration’s recent attempt to rehab the public’s relationship with President Biden and the economy, is not landing. The accomplishments the president touted don’t seem to be resonating with many Americans.

Right now, the economy is still a significant worry for Americans, dragging on President Joe Biden’s overall approval rating, a predicament he has been in for some time as we’ve discussed before. Even as inflation has cooled, worry about the economy and a potential recession persist.

Now, as more and more candidates announce plans to run for President in 2024, are the potential ramifications for 2024 any clearer? CONTINUED

Clifford Young, Sarah Feldman & Bernard Mendez, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Supreme Court decision highlights racial disparities in higher education

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The Supreme Court’s June decision putting an end to the use of affirmative action in higher education admissions paved the way for potentially dramatic changes in who gets into college and where they go.

The case revolved around affirmative action policies at Harvard and the University of North Carolina, but the impacts will touch campuses across the country — at least campuses which receive federal funding. And while the extent of the ruling will only become clear over time, even a cursory look at the data around educational attainment shows two very important points hold true.

First, sharp racial and ethnic divides remain around who has bachelor’s degree in the United States today. And second, those differences have very real socioeconomic impacts in broader American society. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Threads shakes things up

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Wednesday afternoon, Meta turned the social media landscape upside down. In less than two hours, the company reported that its new app, Threads, reached 2 million users. Now, after just a few short days, that number has climbed even higher, with notable celebrities and influencers migrating to the platform.

That has ruffled some feathers at Twitter. Twitter, owned now by Elon Musk, is filing lawsuits and taking aim at Meta’s new app.

With all the speculation and punditry around the latest piece of social media, we check in with how Americans are reacting to Threads in five charts below. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack