Trump support has held steady despite legal troubles. Is that changing?

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Despite growing legal peril for former President Donald Trump, there has been little overall shift in public opinion in recent months about whether or not he has done something wrong, either by acting unethically or illegally. But according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, Republican faith in Trump’s faultlessness has dwindled this summer. …

Considering the criminal cases swirling around Trump, about half of U.S. adults think the 2024 frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination has done something illegal, according to this latest poll, conducted July 24 to July 27. That includes most Democrats and a slim majority of independents. At the same time, roughly a quarter of Americans think he has acted unethically, but not illegally. CONTINUED

Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour

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National survey finds Trump holding steady among Republicans, and a tie in Biden/Trump head-to-head

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A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that former President Donald Trump has increased his support for the Republican nomination since March. In July, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the choice of 22%, down from 25% in May and 35% in March, among all Republicans and independents who lean Republicans and are registered to vote…. No other Republican candidate is close to either Trump or DeSantis. Trump’s support for the nomination in July is 46%, unchanged from May, but up from 40% in March. …

In a potential rematch of the 2020 presidential election between President Joe Biden and Trump, registered voters were evenly split, with each candidate receiving 50% support.

When asked about a hypothetical Biden/DeSantis race, registered voters favored DeSantis, 51-48. There is little change since the May survey, but Biden’s support among independents saw a modest increase, from 44% to 51%.

Approval of how Biden is handling his job as president inched up slightly to 42%, in July, from 39% in May. Disapproval in July was 57%, down from 61% in May. CONTINUED

Marquette Law School Poll

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National survey finds four-point increase in overall public approval of U.S. Supreme Court’s performance and plurality support of five recent major decisions

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A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 45% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing and 55% disapprove. While approval remains below disapproval, this is a 4-percentage point increase in approval since May and the second highest rating since March 2022, when approval stood at 54%. …

Each of five decisions released in June 2023 and included in the survey found a plurality of support, with at least two-thirds awareness in cases involving race in college admissions, student-loan forgiveness, and religious beliefs and free speech. …

The Department of Justice has become the subject of debate over its handling of a number of prosecutions and investigations in recent years. Overall, 25% say they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in the DOJ, while 34% say they have some confidence, with a substantial 41% saying they have little or no confidence. …

Confidence in the national news media remains at low levels, with 13% expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence, 27% saying they have some confidence, and a majority, 60%, saying they have little or no confidence. CONTINUED

Marquette Law School Poll

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58% of likely Ohio voters back proposal to enshrine abortion access in constitution

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Ohioans largely support a measure to enshrine abortion access in the state constitution, but it likely wouldn’t clear a proposed 60% threshold for constitutional amendments that voters will decide in August, according to a new USA TODAY Network/Suffolk University poll.

About 57.6% of likely Ohio voters support the abortion rights proposal that could be on the November ballot; 32.4% oppose it and 10% were undecided, according to the poll of 500 likely voters conducted between July 9 and July 12 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. CONTINUED

Jessie Balmert, Cincinnati Enquirer

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Fox Business Poll: Trump has commanding lead in South Carolina GOP primary

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Former President Donald Trump won the 2016 South Carolina Republican primary by 10 points and could be primed to crush those results in 2024.

A new Fox Business poll on the GOP nomination race shows Trump with a 34-point lead in the Palmetto State, as over half believe he’s the candidate most likely to defeat President Biden.

The new poll, released Sunday, finds almost half of South Carolina likely Republican primary voters backing Trump in the 2024 primary contest (48%). That number is slightly larger (51%) among those who say they will definitely vote in the February 24 primary. CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox Business

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Fox Business Poll: Trump leads in Iowa, as DeSantis and Scott round out the top 3

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An early read on the race for the Republican nomination in Iowa shows former President Donald Trump the clear frontrunner — and then there is a sharp drop off to the rest of the field.

Trump leads by 30 points in a Fox Business survey of Iowa Republicans, as likely caucus-goers prioritize electability and see him as the one who can win in 2024.

Here are the numbers: 46% of likely GOP caucus-goers back Trump, putting him in a category all his own. The next tier is Ron DeSantis at 16% and Tim Scott at 11%. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox Business

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