Trump Crushing DeSantis and G.O.P. Rivals, Times/Siena Poll Finds

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Former President Donald J. Trump is dominating his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, leading his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a landslide 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate, according to the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the 2024 campaign.

Mr. Trump held decisive advantages across almost every demographic group and region and in every ideological wing of the party, the survey found, as Republican voters waved away concerns about his escalating legal jeopardy. CONTINUED

Shane Goldmacher, New York Times

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The chance of Trump winning another term is very real

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Donald Trump is facing two indictments, with the potential for more. Political wisdom may have once suggested the former president’s bid for a second White House term would be nothing but a pipe dream. But most of us know better by now.

Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.

No one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent. He’s pulling in more than 50% of support in the national primary polls, i.e., more than all his competitors combined. …

What should arguably be more amazing is that despite most Americans agreeing that Trump’s two indictments thus far were warranted, he remains competitive in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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The uneven toll of the coronavirus pandemic

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The official health emergency over Covid may be over, but the effects still linger. And this week the journal JAMA Internal Medicine, published a study that supported a theory many had suspected: The pandemic didn’t hit all Americans the same — and Republicans, who lagged behind in accepting the Covid vaccine, paid a steeper price.

In the piece, researchers from Yale wrote that they examined 538,000 deaths of people 25 and older in Florida and Ohio between March 2020 and December 2021, and they found larger increases in excess deaths in that period among Republicans, particularly after the Covid vaccine was introduced. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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How people are coping with the heat

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How are people coping with the heat? Going outside less and turning up the juice more. Most Americans report going outside less often and many are advising their family and kids to do the same amid soaring temperatures. And people are also upping their electricity use (and those bills) in order to cope. …

We continue to see differences by political party on the issue of climate change as we long have. Democrats are far more likely to see it as an urgent matter and have become more concerned about it amid record-high temperatures. Most Republicans, on the other hand, don’t think climate change needs to be addressed right away and haven’t become more concerned about it now.

Partisan differences also extend to perceptions of weather. Fewer Republicans than Democrats say they have experienced unusually high temperatures recently. CONTINUED

Jennifer De Pinto, CBS News

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The economy’s long, hot, and uncertain summer

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Never mind the macro stats for the U.S. economy — Americans are hot, and very much still bothered by high prices, with recent reports about GDP growth, stock gains and a strong labor market apparently providing cold comfort. At least so far.

Instead, most describe the economy as “uncertain,” along with calling it bad, and “struggling” but not improved. …

Most tie both the U.S. economy and their own personal finances (whether bad or good) at least in part to President Biden’s policies — an important measure of both macro and micro connection — and also to that very immediate measure of prices. …

This also shows the challenge President Biden faces in his latest push to get the public to reconsider not just how they think of the economy, which few describe as “rebounding,” but also the meaning of the phrase his administration has coined, “Bidenomics.” CONTINUED

CBS News

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Biden Averages 40.7% Job Approval in 10th Quarter

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President Joe Biden’s job approval rating during his 10th quarter in office averaged 40.7%, marking a one-percentage-point uptick from last quarter, which was the lowest of his presidency. …

Democrats’ approval rating of Biden is 86%, Republicans’ is 2%, and independents’ is 38%. Ratings among Republicans and independents are slightly lower than in June, while Democrats’ rating is four points higher.

Of the 11 post-World War II U.S. presidents elected to their first term, just one — Jimmy Carter — had a lower 10th-quarter average approval rating than Biden. Amid a nationwide energy crisis and high gas prices in 1979, Carter’s approval averaged 30.7% in his 10th quarter, 10 points lower than Biden’s. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

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