More women than men have college degrees. That’s good news for Democrats.

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… Back in 1970, only 11% of Americans 25-or-older had a bachelor’s degree. The number has risen every decade to roughly 38% in 2021, according to the data from the Census’s Current Population Survey. The jump since 2010 has been especially sharp and one of the big drivers of that has been more women completing their four-year degrees. In fact, in the last decade, women surpassed men in college completion. …

The “gender gap” in American politics, in which women lean solidly Democratic and men lean solidly Republican, has grown in recent decades and was notable in the 2020 election. … And educational attainment has become a significant factor in partisan affiliation as well. College graduates increasingly vote Democratic and that had big impacts on the most recent presidential race. …

Those political trends combined with the broader changes in who is going to and completing college may end up reinforcing each other and leading to a long-term shift where the nation’s two biggest political parties are increasingly divided by a mix of gender and education. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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Trump’s big lead grows, as GOP voters dismiss indictments

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Well, there’s no debate about this: Right now, the Republican Party would easily re-nominate Donald Trump for 2024. And it’s not close.

The former president now holds his largest lead over his rivals in our polling amid his recent legal troubles. In fact, most of his voters cite those troubles as yet one more reason to show him support.

His nearest — but not too near — rival Ron DeSantis has fallen even further back. Everyone else is in single digits. CONTINUED

CBS News

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Republican voters think Trump is electable. They may be right

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… Just seven years ago, both Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton had unfavorable ratings north of 50%. It wasn’t the same majorities that disliked both candidates. Most voters liked at least one of them. But a sizable bloc of the electorate (18%) disliked both candidates, according to the 2016 exit polls. Today, a slightly higher percentage of the electorate, on average, likes neither Biden nor Trump.

You might think the edge for 2024 should go to the man who has a slightly higher average favorable rating (Biden). But that math didn’t work in 2016. More voters who disliked both Trump and Clinton went with Trump, and it won him the election.

A lot of Republicans may be betting on that math again, and who is to say they’re incorrect? CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

What to know going into the first GOP primary debate

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While most Americans are yawning through the waning days of late August, the political world is buzzing with one indictment after another and now, next week, the first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee. While eight candidates have qualified for the debate, the leading one—former President Donald Trump—may not show up. Right now, Trump leads the Republican primary field, with a history of drawing viewers into his media moments. The former president’s decision to show up matters for his opponents. …

Heading into the GOP primary debate next week, the former president is comfortably ahead in the polls despite mounting indictments. The other GOP primary candidates will likely struggle to draw people into the program in the way that Trump can. What does that mean? Perhaps a smaller audience and fewer chances to take direct swings at the leading candidate; a tough spot to be in. CONTINUED

Clifford Young, Sarah Feldman & Bernard Mendez, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

American democracy is cracking. These forces help explain why.

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In a country where the search for common ground is increasingly elusive, many Americans can agree on this: They believe the political system is broken and that it fails to represent them.

They aren’t wrong.

Faced with big and challenging problems — climate, immigration, inequality, guns, debt and deficits — government and politicians seem incapable of achieving consensus. On each of those issues, the public is split, often bitterly. But on each, there are also areas of agreement. What’s broken is the will of those in power to see past the divisions enough to reach compromise. CONTINUED

Dan Balz & Clara Ence Morse, Washington Post

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Fourth Trump indictment does little to change public opinion

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Half of Americans believe former President Donald Trump should be charged with a crime, and the same number say the latest charges are politically motivated, according to new ABC News/Ipsos polling conducted the day after the announcement of charges in Georgia related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in that state. Overall, opinion has not changed from indictment to indictment, and attitudes toward the severity of these charges as well as whether or not Trump should suspend his 2024 presidential campaign, remain driven entirely by partisanship. CONTINUED

Chris Jackson & Mallory Newall, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack