Overwhelming majorities express concerns about Biden, Trump ahead of 2024 race

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Three-quarters of voters say they’re concerned about President Joe Biden’s age and mental fitness, while nearly two-thirds have concerns about the multiple trials former President Donald Trump faces, a new national NBC News poll finds, casting a gloomy shadow over the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

The poll also shows Trump expanding his national lead in the Republican presidential nominating contest to more than 40 points over his nearest competition, and it has Biden and Trump deadlocked in a hypothetical rematch more than a year before the general election. CONTINUED

Mark Murray, Bianca Seward & Alec Hernández, NBC News

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Half the public lacks confidence the Justice Department is handling the Hunter Biden case in a fair and non-partisan way

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Half of the public have little to no confidence that the Justice Department is handling its investigation of Hunter Biden in a fair and non-partisan manner, and a third are very concerned about the possibility that President Biden committed wrongdoing related to his son’s business dealings.

Just 19% of the public is very confident in the fairness of the Justice Department’s investigation and another 30% is somewhat confident. While the lack of confidence is especially widespread among Republicans, Democrats are fairly spilt with roughly a third who are very confident and a third with little to no confidence. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Why ‘Middle-class Joe’ Biden may need upscale voters more than ever in 2024

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Throughout his political career, President Joe Biden has unfailingly presented himself as a product – and champion – of the middle class. As president, he has relentlessly touted his economic plan as a “blue-collar blueprint” to rebuild America and highlighted the number of new jobs tied to his signature policy initiatives that do not require a four-year college degree. …

But even as Biden stresses such arguments, a combination of opportunity and vulnerability may be pushing him in 2024 toward less reliance on blue-collar voters and greater dependence on better-educated and more affluent voters, particularly in a possible rematch with Trump.

Biden’s opportunities with upscale voters are widening because polls show that, compared to working-class voters, they are more likely to view Trump as a threat to American democracy, as well as more likely to support abortion rights. Simultaneously, Biden’s position with working-class voters is eroding largely because they are expressing the most frustration and strain over the economy and inflation. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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College football’s conference scramble marks decline of regionalism in U.S.

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There was a time when the regions of the United States were clearly defined and understood entities: the Middle Atlantic, the Southeast and the Midwest. But the lines have blurred, and a quick look at demographics (and election results) will tell you Chicago and Atlanta have more in common with each other than the rural parts of their respective states.

Regional trends and viewpoints are increasingly being replaced by national ones that cross state and regional boundaries in the worlds of business and politics. And as fall 2023 arrives, you can see that shift impacting even the world of college sports — particularly college football. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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CNN Poll: GOP voters’ broad support for Trump holds, with less than half seriously worried criminal charges will harm his 2024 chances

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Former President Donald Trump continues to hold what has proven to be an unshakeable position atop the Republican field of candidates vying to take on President Joe Biden next year, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Trump is the top choice for his party’s nomination at the traditional Labor Day start to a more engaged campaign season, ahead of his nearest rival by more than 30 percentage points (52% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters support him, compared with 18% behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis). And Trump is broadly seen as best able to handle a wide range of issues. CONTINUED

Jennifer Agiesta & Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

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One year out, here’s what we know about how the presidential race will look on Labor Day 2024

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Much remains unknown of course about the presidential general election whose traditional kick-off will come one year from today on Labor Day, 2024. But one thing is already clear: the race will almost certainly be decided by a handful of voters in the very few states not entirely secure for either party.

The roster of swing states that both sides can genuinely hope to win may be as small next year as at any point in modern history – no more than seven or eight and perhaps as few as four. On such a concentrated battlefield, the margin between success and failure for the two parties may be achingly narrow and the competition for voters fiercely intense.

“Never have so few people had such a big impact in deciding the future of American politics,” said Doug Sosnik who served as the chief White House political adviser for Bill Clinton.

Multiple measures track the evolution of what could be called the incredible shrinking presidential battlefield. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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