The nascent 2024 presidential campaign seemed to hit a different gear this week with Nikki Haley entering the Republican primary. The former South Carolina governor and onetime United Nations ambassador joins former President Donald Trump as the only major competitors to declare bids for the presidency. Haley’s announcement, and the […] Read more »
Five years after Parkland, what has changed?
One week, two widely publicized mass shootings. One at a school and another a few buildings down from where a shooter killed 23 in 2019. These two mass shootings come on the heels of the fifth anniversary of the 2018 Parkland, Florida shooting, one of the deadliest school shootings in […] Read more »
The Contradictions of Ron DeSantis
Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida hasn’t officially decided whether he’ll seek the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. But already the contradictions are sharpening between his prospective general-election strengths and his emerging strategy to win the Republican primaries. Many of DeSantis’s boosters are drawn to him as a potential Republican nominee because […] Read more »
Both White and Nonwhite Democrats are Moving Left
Key Points• One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been a growing ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans.• This has also led to more ideological cohesion within parties, including a dramatic increase among Democrats between 2012 and 2020. Democrats are now as ideologically cohesive […] Read more »
The Senate Primaries to Watch So Far
Key Points• It has been over a decade since an incumbent senator was successfully primaried in a regularly-scheduled election; though a few senators may be vulnerable, 2024 may continue that streak.• Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-CA) decision to retire removed one vulnerable senator from the primary conversation; Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) […] Read more »
Donald Trump did not win in 2016 because the establishment “split the field”
… Conventional wisdom about the 2016 primary has analysts stipulating that dividing the anti-Trump vote will allow him to win the primary again with plurality support, as he did last time around. After all, he only won 45% of the popular vote in the primary; surely if Ted Cruz, Marco […] Read more »