President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is steady at 42% and similar to his 41% rating for handling foreign affairs. One year into the Russia-Ukraine war, 46% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the Ukraine situation, but approval of his handling of relations with Russia (37%) and China (32%) […] Read more »
McLaughlin Poll: Biden Numbers Even Worse Than Thought
While President Joe Biden delays his decision to run for reelection, our just completed national poll has Biden trailing former President Donald Trump 48% to 44% with 8% firmly undecided. However, upon reviewing the poll’s internal data among independent voters and undecided voters, we believe it’s even worse for President […] Read more »
Three big numbers that tell the story of secularization in America
An empty church in Hiers-Brouage, France. Andia/Universal Images Group via Getty Images Phil Zuckerman, Pitzer College About six months ago, Americans’ belief in God hit an all-time low. According to a 2022 Gallup survey, the percentage of people who believe in God has dropped from 98% in the 1950s to […] Read more »
The philosophical and empirical cases for ignoring bad or biased pollsters
… I am admittedly a bit late to this, but I have a few comments to make on FiveThirtyEight’s recently published retrospective on their forecasts of the 2022 midterm elections. I am writing this as someone who, like Nate Silver, makes a lot of election forecasts, so knows the struggle […] Read more »
Democrats have been doing well in special elections in 2023
Democrat Jennifer McClellan easily won the special election for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District last week. The fact that a Democrat comfortably retained a Democratic seat in a district President Joe Biden would have won under its new lines by 36 points in 2020 is not surprising. What is notable is […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Majorities support policies to strengthen border but also to make it easier to immigrate to US
As Congress continues to hold hearings on the southern border crisis under President Biden, the latest Fox News poll finds majorities favor both policies that strengthen the border as well as ones that find a way for more immigrants to come to the U.S. legally. The survey, released Sunday, finds […] Read more »