Not Biden vs. Trump Again! The Disgruntled Voters Who Could Decide the 2024 Election

Key Points
• Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection.
• However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still have less negative attitudes toward him than they do toward Trump, according to the 2022 American National Elections Studies Pilot Study.
• A key bloc of voters who would prefer someone other than Biden or Trump skew conservative, but are also alienated by Trump’s actions around the events of Jan. 6, 2021. CONTINUED

Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball

2024 presidential vote intention by Biden job rating


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