Key Points
• Both the Midwest and Interior West have states that Joe Biden carried by less than his popular vote margin in 2020.
• In the Midwest, Michigan and Wisconsin will likely be prime battlegrounds states next year, although Michigan seems a harder lift for Republicans.
• In the Interior West, Arizona’s Republican lean has been eroding in elections since 2008 — this allowed Biden to carry it in 2020, but Democrats will also have to work to keep neighboring Nevada in their column. CONTINUED
J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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