Key Points
• Presidential approval is typically a good predictor of the share of the vote an incumbent president will receive.
• Recent presidents often ran a little ahead of their approval as opposed to a little behind, although the sample size is very small.
• Assuming President Biden’s approval, which is mired in the low-to-mid 40s, does not spike to 50% or better before Election Day, he is likely going to have to perform well with those who only “somewhat” disapprove of his job performance. Democrats held their own with these voters in 2022. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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