Key Points
• We’re continuing our series of looking at how the most vote-rich counties in a state vote versus those that make up the rest of the state by moving to the Southwest.
• The region contains the key swing states of Arizona and Nevada, both of which are dominated by a single county that casts well north of half the statewide vote.
• Both the top and bottom halves of Texas have moved toward the Democrats from 2012-2020, but the top half just is not blue enough at the moment.
• Colorado and New Mexico have moved out of the swing state category, pushed by top-half shifts. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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