Key Points
• The calendar year before the presidential primary voting begins is often defined by winnowing, as contenders emerge and then fade.
• But Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are taking up so much oxygen that we may already have the top contenders, with everyone else who runs essentially an afterthought.
• DeSantis is polling well for a non-candidate, but we need to see how he actually performs before assuming that his support is solid.
• If another candidate supplants DeSantis (or Trump), or at least vaults into their stratosphere, don’t necessarily assume it will be someone who is currently well-known now or has a lot of formal political experience. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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