… Trump is a clear, though not prohibitive, favorite to win next year’s Republican nomination for president. Right now, he’s averaging about 44% in the national primary polls. He’s 15 points ahead of DeSantis who is at 29%. A 15-point lead may not seem impressive at this early stage of the primary campaign, but it’s notable for two reasons.
The first is that most candidates in Trump’s position right now have gone on to win their primary. Take a look at all the candidates who were averaging at least 35% in past national primary polls in the first half of the year prior to the primary (e.g., January to June of 2019 for the 2020 primary). Since 1972, about 75% of these candidates have gone on to win the nomination when they faced at least one major challenger. Those polling between 35% and 50% at this stage of the primary campaign have won about 67% of the time. CONTINUED
Harry Enten, CNN
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