Key Points
• The overall battle for House control in 2024 starts as a Toss-up.
• Relatively similar numbers of Democratic and Republican seats start in the most competitive Toss-up and Leans categories, although Republicans start with a few more targets in large part because of the likelihood that they will benefit from redistricting in North Carolina and Ohio.
• Big blue states California and New York, where Republicans have made key gains over the past couple of cycles, loom large as Democrats plot a path back to the House majority. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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