Will President Biden’s State of the Union move numbers?

… Very rarely do State of the Union speeches meaningfully improve presidents’ approval ratings. Moving numbers is not really the key objective, and that should not be the criteria by which they are judged.

Examining ratings before and after these addresses demonstrates that since 1978, the average State of the Union has had an impact of less than two-tenths of a percentage point on presidential approval. Infinitesimal. In fact, it is slightly more common for approval ratings to worsen than to improve.

Only five speeches produced upward movement of 4 points or more. Former President Clinton, a master communicator, delivered three of those five addresses. Though dubbed the “Great Communicator,” none of President Reagan’s State of the Union addresses generated more than a 3-point increase in his approval rating; two seemed to produce declines of 4 points or more. Former President Trump improved his ratings after just one of his State of the Union speeches, by a meager 2 points.

Nonetheless, by the time you read this, you will probably be inundated with instant polls purporting to portend big shifts in public attitudes. Those polls usually portend nothing. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill


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