The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting

Key Points
• Senate races are increasingly converging with presidential partisanship, to the point where the huge overperformances that were so common a decade or two ago have become much less common.
• Since 2000, the number of senators who have run more than 10 points ahead of their party’s presidential nominee has decreased sharply.
• This trend helps explain why we currently rate Democratic-held West Virginia as Leans Republican and started off Montana and Ohio as Toss-ups. CONTINUED

J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball


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