Congressional elections often are considered a referendum on presidents. Popular presidential candidates produce coattails in presidential election years and can limit voters’ typical desires for partisan balancing in midterms. But the president’s party tends to lose congressional seats and vote share in midterms even with high popularity. We argue that congressional results partially reflect the degree to which presidents pursue (and accomplish) liberal or conservative policies. The president’s party tends to overshoot voters’ desires for liberal or conservative parties, especially in midterms. This moves voters in the opposite ideological direction and disproportionately stimulates opposition party engagement, leading to opposition gains. CONTINUED
Matt Grossmann (Michigan State) & Christopher Wlezien (UT Austin)
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