Key Points
• The United States is in an extremely competitive era of presidential elections.
• In the 6 elections this century, the popular vote margin has been less than 5 points in all but 1 of them.
• Many of the states have been consistent in their presidential voting since 2000, although there have been key shifts that have altered the roster of most competitive swing states.
• Relative to the nation, much of the West has become more Democratic over the past 2 decades, along with some other pockets of the country, while many states in the Northeast, Midwest, and Greater South have become more Republican.
• The most competitive states in 2020 may be the most competitive in 2024: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Great Lakes region and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina in the Sun Belt. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Electoral College voting record since 2000
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