4 reasons to be skeptical about election polling

Pollsters should worry that their profession might soon be regarded as more like astrology than political science.

Reasons to take polls with a large grain of salt abound. First, the nagging sense that pollsters are “missing” MAGA voters remains, as was the case during both the 2016 and 2020 elections. In both cycles, pollsters essentially got the Democratic share of the vote right but missed many voters who supported Donald Trump. …

In 2020, polls gave a false sense of security for many House and Senate Democratic candidates. But that polling failure did not occur in 2018, when Trump was not on the ballot. So is the worry of missing Republican voters valid this time around? It’s a source of serious debate. CONTINUED

Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post


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