In 2016, the first year of its existence, the Trafalgar Group was one of the few polling outfits to predict that Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Trafalgar incorrectly predicted another Trump win but accurately depicted the race as neck and neck in places like Wisconsin, where many pollsters again drastically underestimated Trump’s support. Although Trafalgar has missed the mark widely on its share of races over the years — usually overestimating Republican chances — it has become an object of fascination for its seeming ability to capture a segment of the population that has eluded other surveyors. But because of the company’s opaque methods and predictably GOP-leaning results, Trafalgar is also a frequent target of criticism for more mainstream pollsters. I spoke with Trafalgar founder Robert Cahaly about what makes his polls different, why he’s not more transparent about his methods, and how he thinks the midterms will shake out. CONTINUED
Benjamin Hart, New York Magazine
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