Hispanic voters could easily be the x-factor that determines whether Democrats or Republicans hold Congress in November. In 2020, a rightward shift among some Hispanics—most notably in South Texas and Florida—resulted in a few surprise congressional wins for Republicans and stronger-than-expected support for then-President Trump. In general, the 2020 trend doesn’t seem to be reversing. Trouble is, no one seems to agree on whether it’s accelerating or leveling off.
Why don’t we know more? Two reasons: First, the entire political field tends to treat Hispanics as if they are a monolithic ethnic group that is attitudinally the same across the country—and they are not; secondly, public political surveys in the media often don’t have large enough samples of Hispanics to be able to definitively say where they fall in elections. CONTINUED
Natalie Jackson, National Journal
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