National Polls, State Ballots Measure Different ‘Public Opinions’

Nate Cohn, who covers politics and polling for the New York Times, wrote an article last month (6/3/22) comparing the results of national polls with actual ballot measures in states. His major theme was that national polls may be unreliable when they show high levels of support for various policies. The reason: When those same policies are voted on at the state level, they uniformly perform worse than what the national polls show.

He suggested to supporters of gun control in particular: “Their problem could also be the voters, not just politicians or special interests.”

While it’s always prudent to be skeptical of polls in general, I believe Cohn goes too far in dismissing the utility of national polls, and implying that the votes on state initiatives and referendums are a better indicator of what the public wants. CONTINUED

David W. Moore, FAIR


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