In a notable reversal from typical trends, Republicans took the lead in polling averages of the congressional generic-ballot question in late 2021 and have remained a few percentage points ahead of Democrats since. What does that mean for November? Probably less than you think.
This survey question—used because it isn’t feasible to put all 435 possible matchups on a single survey instrument—asks respondents whether they plan to vote for the Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress in their district. It has traditionally been highly predictive of how many House seats might change hands at the national level. But those days might be over.
What has changed? Polarization—at two levels. CONTINUED
Natalie Jackson, National Journal
Recent polls: Generic congressional ballot
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