… We set out to find out what percentage of people in each state support legal abortions. Drawing on work by one of us and Devin Caughey, we used micro-data from publicly available probability polls from academic surveys such as American National Election Studies and media polls we obtained via the Roper Center from organizations such as the Pew Research Center, ABC News, PRRI and the Kaiser Family Foundation. …
Our analysis of polling data suggests that more Americans will live under an abortion policy that is out of step with their preferences, with consequences for democratic representation. This is largely because clear majorities of citizens in purple states that are likely to ban abortion — like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and even Iowa — support abortion rights, as our figure shows. CONTINUED
Jake Grumbach (U. of Washington) & Christopher Warshaw (George Washington U.), Monkey Cage
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