Polls vs. initiative results

Last week, The New York Times’s astute chief political analyst, Nate Cohn, raised serious doubts about polling on background checks for gun purchasers and, by extension, about the efficacy of issue polling generally.

The heart of his case: “When voters in four Democratic-leaning states got the opportunity to enact expanded gun background checks into law [through ballot initiatives], the overwhelming support suggested by national surveys was nowhere to be found.”

Cohn nods to the counterargument—“Initiative and referendum results are not a perfect or simple measure of public opinion”—but he seems to repose more faith in the ballot measure results than in the poll data.

I don’t. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill


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