Key Points
• One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida.
• However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in Latino presidential voting shows that this growing voting bloc is not necessarily trending one way or the other.
• Presidential incumbency appears to have a stronger influence on Latino voters than on other demographic groups. CONTINUED
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Democratic margin among Latino voters in presidential elections, 1984-2020
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