Do SOTU speeches change opinion?

Pomp and circumstance returned just in time for President Biden to deliver an outstanding State of the Union address (SOTU) yesterday. …

While it was a great speech, don’t overestimate its likely impact. Rarely do State of the Union speeches yield significant or lasting effect on presidents’ approval ratings. While these speeches generate vast coverage, the central tendency is for these annual national rituals to leave only a barely perceptible trace in the public consciousness. …

Nonetheless, by the time you read this, you’ll probably be swimming in instant polls purporting to portend big shifts in public attitudes. Pro tip: That almost always happens, and usually portends nothing. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill


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