Key Points
• A recurring theme during Donald Trump’s presidency was the emergence of seemingly very negative and very damaging stories that ultimately did not appear to do him long-term harm.
• It may be that Jan. 6, when Trump’s unsubstantiated allegations of fraud in the 2020 election galvanized a crowd of his supporters to storm the U.S. Capitol, is another such story.
• Donald Trump’s position among the American public is largely unchanged from right before the events of Jan. 6, 2021. His position among Republicans remains strong, and the position of his detractors within the party appears weak. And Republicans’ political position in the context of 2022 also appears strong. CONTINUED
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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