Key Points
• The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the previous cycle’s presidential race. The recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are no exception, both this year and historically.
• This likely has more to do with an enthusiasm advantage generating better turnout for the non-presidential party than that party’s ability to attract considerable numbers of voters who supported the presidential party in the most recent presidential race.
• Based on exit polls, the Virginia electorate in 2021 was markedly more Republican-leaning than the 2020 presidential electorate. CONTINUED
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack