It seems like everybody has a theory for Glenn Youngkin’s big win in Virginia last week. Why and how did he win? Who deserves the credit or the blame for the Democrats’ losses?
Many of the explanations, whether from politicians, cable news pundits, consultants or columnists, seem to reflect their own political narratives and assumptions rather than hard data. Many simply cannot accept the fact that Youngkin’s positive strategy focused on bread-and-butter issues and education helped him build a winning coalition of conservatives, moderates and independents. …
While turnout matters, what matters just as much is who turns out. In this case, the breakdown of the electorate by both party ID and ideology shows no change from 2020. But Biden won and McAuliffe lost. If the composition of the electorate remained the same, what changed? The candidates and the issues, which translated into voter preference. CONTINUED
David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call
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