… To be a journalist is to be a soothsayer, especially for political journalists, who speculate on everything from who stands to win the next election to what the chances are that a bill might pass to what the president might do next. Pollsters and political journalists use poll data to divine the future the way Doppler radar and satellite imagery is used for tomorrow’s weather report. You might find that comparison a stretch but both polling data and Doppler radar are nuggets of data used to predict future events. Neither polling predictions nor weather forecasts have ever been considered bulletproof. The same goes for stock predictions and sports odds. They’re born flawed.
The mind resists imagining the world of journalism without polls because polls are journalism and have been since 1824, when reporters cited the results of non-scientific straw polls at public political gatherings. The criticisms of polls are valid. They’re no way near as “scientific” as their proprietors would like you to think they are, but how much worse are they than the much vaunted “shoe-leather reporting” from the campaign beat that attempts to record the voters’ temperature? CONTINUED
Jack Shafer, Politico Magazine
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