Why Was the New Jersey Gubernatorial Race So Close?

… In New Jersey, Phil Murphy, the incumbent Democrat, beat Jack Ciattarelli, his Republican challenger, and became the first Democrat to win reëlection as the Garden State’s governor in forty-four years. But the result was much closer than expected. …

On Election Night this week, the race between Murphy and Ciattarelli was too close to call. “You know, we just had the most New Jersey experience,” Murphy said, in a victory speech he delivered on Wednesday, after the Associated Press finally called the race. “I was on my way someplace, and it took us longer to get there than we planned.” On Friday afternoon, with ninety-five per cent of the votes tallied, Murphy’s lead was just more than two points.

On Friday, I spoke with Danny Franklin, a longtime pollster for Murphy, and asked him what he made of the results. CONTINUED

Eric Lach, The New Yorker


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