Two notable things happened in the recent 2021 elections. First, there was a Republican swing in New Jersey, Virginia, and elsewhere. Second, the polls were off in New Jersey, with the Democrat receiving only about 51% of the two-party vote, after being at about 54% in the polls. A three percentage point polling error is hardly unprecedented, but it’s on the high end of what pollsters like to see.
As students of political science and statistics, we would emphasize two aspects of the 2021 Virginia and New Jersey governor elections. They both have to do with the surprise—given what was expected in pre-election polling—at how well Republicans did, especially in New Jersey, and raise the question: How much can we count on the polls to provide an accurate baseline? CONTINUED
Robert E. Erikson, Andrew Gelman & Robert Y. Shapiro, Columbia News
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