So what just happened in New Jersey? After incumbent Democratic governor Phil Murphy scraped his way to reelection by less than two points on Tuesday, the question is top of mind not just in his state but for his party around the country. On one level, the answer is obvious: Democratic candidates paid the price for their party’s and Joe Biden’s unpopularity — it happened in Virginia, too, where former governor Terry McAuliffe lost to Republican Glenn Youngkin after leading almost the entire race.
But New Jersey’s near-reversal was more dramatic and much more surprising: For one thing, Biden just won it by 16 points last year. And for another, most polling showed Murphy beating Republican ex-state legislator Jack Ciattarelli by double digits until the final days, and even then, none of the tighter polls had the race even close to tied. …
In July, Monmouth University poll director Patrick Murray told me “it would really take some type of implosion in terms of the governor’s job approval ratings” to make the race close. For a Republican to have a shot statewide, Murray said, the implosion “would have to be on an apocalyptic level.” I spoke with Murray again on Thursday to try and make sense of that apocalypse. CONTINUED
Gabriel Debenedetti, New York Magazine
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