As we wrote a few weeks back, by the numbers, the California recall effort that culminates tomorrow should have little chance of success. Democrats have a huge registration advantage. Gov. Gavin Newsom is relatively (though not overwhelmingly) popular. The “No” side has a huge cash advantage. The one thing that the “Yes” side did have earlier this summer was the political winds at their back. The Delta variant combined with wildfires and continuing frustrations over homelessness, crime and economic security put Newsom on the defensive. It also helped to energize the GOP base. Meanwhile, without a Trump in the White House to stir Democratic angst/passions, there was little motivation for Democratic voters to pay attention to the recall effort.
But now, Democrats have made Republican replacement candidate Larry Elder into the electoral boogeyman/Trump replacement they need — with a huge assist from the conservative radio host himself at times — and Newsom is now the clear favorite to survive, perhaps by a wide margin that seemed unlikely even a few weeks ago. As such, we are moving our final rating of this race back from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. CONTINUED
Amy Walter & Jessica Taylor, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
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