Key Opinion Shifts in California’s Recall Election

… California’s likely voters have held steady on two important measures over the last several months. In the latest PPIC Survey, California likely voters’ support for the recall of Governor Newsom (39% yes, 58% no) continues to fall short of the majority needed for his removal and replacement—a margin that remains similar to the March and May PPIC Surveys (40% each). Additionally, the governor’s approval rating is still in positive territory and barely budged this entire year (53% today, 52% January).

In a clear sign of our hyper-partisan times, Democrats and Republicans are not only deeply divided on these issues but have also shown little change over time in their respective views of Newsom’s leadership. However, there have been marked shifts in key opinions that could have an impact on the propensity to vote—the political wildcard in the final election outcome. CONTINUED

Mark Baldassare, Public Policy Institute of California


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