… We tend to associate wars with “rally-around-the-flag” effects, in which conflicts lead to popularity bumps for presidents and their parties. Such effects may have been true during WWII, but 21st century military interventions are long, drawn out affairs — and political losers.
This is due to what I’ve identified in past research as the time inconsistency between costs and benefits of military interventions. While the costs of intervention accrue immediately, both in terms of actual money as well as human lives, the best-case scenario benefits of intervention take decades, sometimes generations to bear fruit.
For politicians facing election campaigns, this means that there is just no incentive to pay the costs of war up front when you might never see the benefits. CONTINUED
William G. Nomikos (Washington U. in St. Louis), The Hill