Key Points
• The number of swing voters — those who change their minds between presidential elections — has been declining over time.
• However, there are still some swing voters, and they can be decisive in the nation’s highly competitive presidential elections.
• Swing voters helped Joe Biden win the White House, and perceptions of Donald Trump’s stronger conservative ideology in 2020 compared to 2016 may have pushed some swing voters away from the incumbent and toward the challenger. CONTINUED
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Swing voters as percentage of voters supporting major party candidates in consecutive elections, 1952-2020 (Source: American National Election Studies)
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