Political polls of all stripes swung and missed in the 2020 presidential election.
In fact, according to a recent American Association for Public Opinion Research report, the cumulative error was the largest in 40 years.
That includes the performance of our national NBC News/Wall Street Journal, which showed Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 10 points in the final survey before the election, when Biden’s eventual popular-vote victory over Donald Trump was 4.5 points, 51.3percent to 46.8 percent.
In the months after the election, the bipartisan team of pollsters who conduct the national NBC News poll — the Wall Street Journal is no longer a partner — evaluated the poll and its 10,000 interviews in all of 2020 compared with actual voters from states’ voter files. CONTINUED
Mark Murray, NBC News
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