… The central strategic interaction for this election was between a better political and ideological environment in 2020 than 2016 for Republicans versus Biden’s strategy of focusing on personal qualities, given that his favorables were over 50% and Trump’s unfavorables were over 50%. This produced a slim 51% majority vote for Biden, that did not completely translate down ballot to other Democratic candidates. …
Democrats were able to offset the Republican gains in party ID and ideology by making significant gains both at the Presidential and Congressional level among Independents. This puts Independents in a critical position for the 2022 election. For Democrats, the dynamics over the next two years will be how far their policies will go toward their base, which will move them away from Independents. CONTINUED — pdf
The Winston Group
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