The NM-1 Special: Democrats Hold Serve

Key Points
• Democrats turned in an impressive victory in Tuesday night’s special election in NM-1. This comes a month after Republicans scored an impressive performance of their own in the first round of the TX-6 special.
• Democratic performance represented an improvement over both Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s showings in the district, though in some ways, it seemed more due to regional than demographic factors.
• Special elections were among the many indicators that pointed to a strong Democratic year in the House in the 2018 cycle. For a variety of reasons, specials may not be as useful of an indicator this time. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball


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