Assessing AP VoteCast 2020

… AP VoteCast 2020 was conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for Fox News, NPR, PBS NewsHour, Univision News, USA Today Network, The Wall Street Journal, and The Associated Press. The 2020 election was the first time VoteCast was used for a presidential race. Amid a pandemic, record turnout, and many close races, the 2020 election was challenging for the polling industry; many high quality surveys underestimated the vote for Republican candidates.

VoteCast was not immune to some of the broader problems confronting polls, and AP and NORC are deeply committed to further research to improve VoteCast and build upon its successes. That said, we believe VoteCast delivered on its mandate to facilitate AP’s declaration of election winners and provide a real-time portrait of the electorate that enabled journalists around the world to provide readers, viewers, and listeners with a deep understanding of the 2020 election. …

We are committed to transparency of VoteCast’s methods and results and the continual improvement of the VoteCast methodology over time. For example, innovations to the calibration modeling were tested following the general election and successfully implemented for the Georgia runoff elections.

This report provides the results of a thorough assessment of VoteCast’s performance in the 2020 general election and the Georgia runoff elections. CONTINUED — pdf

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research


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