Equis has been conducting a post-mortem of the Latino vote in the 2020 election, specifically geared toward (a) documenting where Trump and the GOP made gains with Latino voters (and where they didn’t), and (b) trying to explain that movement.
Today we are releasing Part One of the post-mortem, focused on which Latino voters may have shifted toward the previous president. We lean on the more than 40,000 interviews with Latino voters that Equis conducted in the 2020 cycle, as well as new and ongoing post-election research, precinct results, voter file data, and publicly available datasets. …
Some analysis makes the mistake of treating the Hispanic electorate as static from election to election, when in fact it is incredibly dynamic and fast-changing. This is a story of both turnout and persuasion, and how those concepts crash together. The Trump coalition of Hispanic voters, still dwarfed in size by the Democratic coalition, grew on the margins thanks to a combination of defections and new voters — with likely a greater number of the latter. CONTINUED
Equis Research
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack