Key Points
• The predictive power of demographics makes county margins strongly correlated and thus inferable from each other. Comparing the actual results to the expected results based on county demographics gives us a better idea of candidate performance.
• In the 2020 presidential election, Democrats overperformed in states with high numbers of educated white voters, such as Texas, Arizona, and Georgia. They also began to show signs of hitting their electoral floors in much of Appalachia.
• Strong Republican showings with evangelicals, non-college whites, and Hispanics helped Trump overperform in Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. CONTINUED
Lakshya Jain, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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