Even before 2020 polling errors became evident, analysts wondered if we could trust the polls. After the election, concerns spiked — overall errors were even larger than in 2016. Frank Luntz went so far as to declare, “the polling profession is done.” We disagree. We think polling has a strong future if the proper methods are used — but these methods may come as a surprise. …
To evaluate the accuracy of non-probability, probability, and mixed-sampling approaches (using both approaches), we analyzed all national polls used in the FiveThirtyEight election forecast with start dates between September 1st and November 1st, 2020. CONTINUED
Peter K. Enns (Cornell) & Jake Rothschild (Reality Check Insights), 3Streams
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